Capital Flows-at-Risk: Push, Pull and the Role of Policy

We characterise the probability distributions of various categories gross capital flows conditional on information contained in financial asset prices a panel emerging market economies, with focus ‘tail’ events. Our framework, based quantile regression methodology, allows for separate role push- and pull-type factors, because it is high-frequency data, can quantify likelihood different outturns before official data are released. find that both push pull factors have heterogeneous effects across flows, which most marked left tails. also explore policies, macroprudential management measures stabilising, leading to lower chances either large portfolio inflows or out flows. JEL Classification: F32, F34, G15